We will be back to my retroactive weekly ballots next Thursday, but this week we're going to take a sabbatical (as you might imagine, those are a lot of work to research & prep, so I can only do one article that size a week without it eating up my whole life!), and are going to focus on Oscar's choices for 2020-21 today...or at least who I think he'll lean toward. Yes, with the Oscar nominations coming out on Monday, it's time for us to lock in our final predictions, and that's what I am going to be doing today. These are what I think will happen, though I say this with less confidence than I have in a long time. Some of the bigger predictors of the season aren't happening in 2020 (box office is usually a great indicator of support, but we don't have that for 2020), and with the awards season SO stretched out (we have been announcing critics prizes since mid-December) it's hard to tell how reliable the rest of the season is in predicting Oscar's selections. Here are my guesses-I'm hoping for some surprises as this long awards season will need heat to not feel dried out come the ceremony next month.
The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
The Trail of the Chicago 7
The Lowdown: Obviously this is a moving target, and the one category where we not only don't know who will be nominated, but how many films will be nominated. That being said, the Academy has favored 8-9 nominations, and I'm sticking with nine this year. Of these, I think the most vulnerable is either The Father or Promising Young Woman, the former because of a botched Sony campaign & the latter because of its feminist leanings (a bit too much for the male-dominated Academy). If either falls, there's a possibility that Da 5 Bloods, Judas & the Black Messiah, Sound of Metal, or Hillbilly Elegy (yes, it could happen) sneak in, but they don't have quite the right pacing for a Best Picture nominee & would stick out even in 2020.
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
David Fincher (Mank)
Regina King (One Night in Miami)
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
The Lowdown: Fincher & Zhao are locks, but that's honestly about it. The other three here I predicted for a few reasons. Sorkin's film is the Best Picture frontrunner, and while Argo and Green Book proved recently you can maintain that title while still missing here, logic dictates Sorkin will make it. Minari seems to be peaking at just the right juncture, and I think that's enough to get it over the hump despite a subdued initial release. The final nomination could go to Spike Lee even without a Best Picture citation (they've been there before), but I think it'll be one of the other Best Picture directors, and while Florian Zeller, Emerald Fennell, George C. Wolfe, & Paul Greengrass have their defenders, Regina King feels like the best option-she's already well-liked by the Academy, and while actor-directors go in-and-out of vogue with AMPAS, she feels up their speed.
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Steven Yeun (Minari)
The Lowdown: Boseman, Hopkins, & Ahmed all feel relatively safe (the first two locks, the third makes enough sense you can't skip predicting him). Gary Oldman's nomination feels somewhat secure as the Academy likes him, and I still think Mank will be more popular with AMPAS than other bodies (they love honoring themselves). The fifth nomination is tricky. Mads Mikkelsen might've made it in a different year (sort of like Javier Bardem in Biutiful), but is there enough buzz around Another Round? Delroy Lindo can't seem to land with anyone this season despite major critical praise, and while I initially thought that News of the World might be a surprise hit this season, the PGA snub has me second-guessing Tom Hanks (who I initially had in this slot). So instead I'm thinking that Steven Yeun, who has had his pedal-to-the-medal all season, is going to sneak in on Minari love.
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Andra Day (United States vs. Billie Holliday)
Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead)
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
The Lowdown: The Golden Globes totally upended this race for me. I had dismissed Day, but she won that statue at just the right time & it feels like she will score (a nomination) as a result-it's too soon to discuss winner predictions, but she's in the hunt. With Davis, McDormand, & Mulligan all feeling strong, that leaves one name left. I'm not going with the other Globes shock (Rosamund Pike), as Oscar skips comedies (and Mulligan already got the "edgy film" slot here), nor am I going with the obvious fifth place (Vanessa Kirby) who has scored everywhere this year but is in a difficult film that hasn't gained love in other categories. I nearly went with Amy Adams (my theory is that more typical, positive films will do better with AMPAS in a year with so much gloom), but I'm siding with Sophia Loren on a hunch. She's a legend, the film keeps showing up places (even if not for her), and the Oscars may want to stack their lineup to help goose ratings.
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods)
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
The Lowdown: Four of these actors feel largely bolted down, though I still am confused as to how the Boseman double nomination thing became such accepted fact (as he's far more worthy for Ma Rainey than this film). The fifth nomination is a free-for-all. I could see someone like David Strathairn (Nomadland), Mark Rylance (Trial of the Chicago 7), Alan Kim (Minari), or Charles Dance (Mank) getting an "Alan Alda" style nomination because the Oscars really liked their film, but if I had to guess I think it's between Jared Leto & Paul Raci. This may be buying into too much late buzz (as I had Leto as my prediction initially), but Raci has rebounded from a lackluster early precursor run with the Globes/SAG Awards, and seems to be the "let's make it happen" nominee of the bunch. I'm betting on him.
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)
Olivia Colman (The Father)
Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
Young Yuh-jung (Minari)
Helena Zengal (News of the World)
The Lowdown: You'd be hard-pressed to find a category in recent memory to have so many open-ended possibilities. Honestly, the only person who feels like a true lock is Olivia Colman, and due to her recent surprise win it seems impossible she'll take the trophy. Close makes sense, though the critical drubbing her film received leaves her in "shock snub" territory. Seyfried is in a role that feels like an Oscar magnet (she's in a Best Picture nominee, she's the right age for Oscar, they tend to favor beautiful women in this category, etc), so I think she'll make it despite the SAG miss (and the Globe loss). The final two are hard. Ellen Burstyn could get in on legend in the same way Loren could, but it's not as easy of a film & her getting snubbed while Kirby gets in has made me think they just don't like the movie. Dominique Fishback might be an option if I'm underestimating Judas love, but is she famous enough? Jodie Foster's win at the Globes demands attention, but while I changed my mind on Day, I am keeping Foster now in sixth place (though that might be stupid). Of the remaining three names, then, I'm going with Young Yuh-jung & Helena Zengel, both in Best Picture nominees & with more sympathetic, traditional roles (loving mother, troubled child) for this category than Maria Bakalova, who despite scoring virtually every precursor is in a improv comedy sequel that couldn't score a nomination last time (when it was far more a part of the zeitgeist). It's just too out-there for Oscar when there's such traditional fare to be had.
The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
News of the World
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Lowdown: Perhaps more than any other category, Best Adapted Screenplay feels locked in. All of these films are nominated for Best Picture (according to me), and none of the remaining options are all that exciting or up Oscar's alley. First Cow hasn't gotten the kind of random nominations all season that might have indicated a surprise here (like WGA or a Globe nomination anywhere), and while Charlie Kaufman is an Oscar favorite, I'm Thinking of Ending Things is a difficult sell for the more traditional Academy. If there's a surprise it might be The Mauritanian if I'm underestimating that film's appeal, but otherwise I think the expected happens here, even if not all of these movies get into the top race.
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Lowdown: I'm also duplicating all of my Best Picture predictions here, meaning that I'm guessing every Best Picture nominee gets into the writing races (it's not that uncommon). That would still leave a fifth slot, and here I'm going to go a little off-the-beaten-path. The smart money would either be on Sound of Metal, which is clearly gearing up for an outside shot at a Best Picture nomination, or Da 5 Bloods, as the writing branch likes Spike Lee. I'm going to go, though with Judas and the Black Messiah. Late-breaking films have done well all precursor season, and I am starting to think that the Academy's memory is too short to gravitate to something like Da 5 Bloods which came out ages ago. This could be a foolhardy prediction though (one of several last-second changes I made due to late precursors).
Onward
Over the Moon
Shaun the Sheep: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
The Lowdown: For my money, people are overthinking this one. There's a lot of push in 2020-21 to assume something like a Calamity or Ride Your Wave, a truly out-there nomination will happen, because it's happened before. But in a more traditional year, the "out there" nominations would be Wolfwalkers and Over the Moon because the box office would have drowned out the movies so they'd look like underdogs...just because we consider them on an even playing field in 2020 doesn't mean Oscar will. If there is a surprise (Onward, Over the Moon, and Farmageddon are all missing at least one crucial precursor), I actually think it'll be The Croods 2 over a more eclectic choice. The film has been one of the only box office bright spots of the pandemic, and the original was nominated so this wouldn't be out-of-character for Oscar.
Another Round (Denmark)
Dear Comrades! (Russia)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
A Sun (Taiwan)
Two of Us (France)
The Lowdown: I'll be real-I can't get a read on this race without box office. Again, in a normal year I'd be able to read the small box office tea leaves & would've quite frankly seen more of these movies, but as they all are effectively running as arthouse films with no traditional American release I'm at a loss. Another Round and Quo Vadis are the ones that feel in the best position (Another Round seems to have assumed the mantle as this year's frontrunner for the win), but beyond that there's no reason to assume that Collective (Romania) or Night of Kings (Ivory Coast) couldn't break through here if I'm underestimating their appeal.
Mank
The Midnight Sky
News of the World
Soul
Trial of the Chicago 7
The Lowdown: There's been an assumption because there aren't a lot of high-profile names from tech category favorites that we're going to see a bunch of new names in these categories, and I'm not buying it, so some of my below-the-line predictions might either look like genius or foolhardiness by Monday. This category usually has only one nominee that's first-timing it, and I think the heat on Chicago 7 makes that person Daniel Pemberton. The double-nomination for Reznor/Ross for Mank or Soul is unusual, but I can't figure out which one to cut, and I don't have enough confidence in Tenet or Minari to substitute one in place of them. It's worth noting that I'm ignoring The Little Things, but Thomas Newman can get in on virtually no steam at all, so if he ends up nominated I wouldn't be surprised.
"Fight for You," (Judas and the Black Messiah)
"Hear My Voice," (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
"Io Si," (The Life Ahead)
"Speak Now," (One Night in Miami)
"Turntables," (All In: The Fight for Democracy)
The Lowdown: It's the music branch & Best Original Song, so who the hell knows? This is one of the hardest categories to predict year in & out, and about the only thing you can count on lately is that Diane Warren will get a nomination (I'm guessing "Io Si" more than "Free"). I went with three major Best Picture nominees here because in recent years betting on the Academy over-nominating Best Picture contenders is a smart play, and for the fifth nomination I think the liberal AMPAS will want to tacitly acknowledge the 2020 election (and Stacey Abrams). "Husavik" and "Wuhan Flu" aren't out-of-the-question for this branch, but they're riskier bets that I'm not willing to take, and never count out Disney in this category (if "Free" can't make it, "Loyal Brave and True" is also an option).
Mank
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
The Midnight Sky
News of the World
Sound of Metal
The Lowdown: With the Sound categories combined, it's a bit hard to tell whether this will favor more the Editing or the Mixing. Mank and News of the World feel safe, and I'm going to guess that Ma Rainey being a musically-inclined Best Picture contender keeps it in the contest. Sound of Metal has the most gimmicky sound work, though will enough of this branch see it? I'm betting yes. The final nomination could go to Tenet, but its sound work was lambasted, and it has been a ghost town all season in terms of precursors (missing with easy options)...I'm cutting Tenet from most of my predictions. As a result, I'll pick Midnight Sky (over Greyhound and Soul, both plausible options) for the final slot, though this could be a weird nomination (Chicago 7 actually isn't bizarre if they really like it).
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Lowdown: I'm leaning in a bit on the past nominees for these fields, which could be a mistake, but for Cinematography it's almost impossible to follow that strategy. Virtually every film this year was from someone who has never been nominated for an Oscar, and the closest we have to an "Academy favorite" in contention is Chris Menges for Waiting for the Barbarians (despite the fact that no one has heard of this movie, it's been campaigning in the Cinematography trade papers, so a nomination would be hilarious if not totally out of the blue). The Cinematography branch has nominated a previous nominee EVERY year since 1930-31, so this would be seismic if it didn't happen for 2020/21. Nomadland, Mank, and News of the World all feel like locks, and I have a gut feeling that Judas is going to rack up a few below-the-line nods (but not make it to Best Picture), so that's four. The previous nominations stat is making me bet on one of two previous nominees for the last two slots: Hoyte van Hoytema (Tenet) and Phedon Papamichael (Chicago 7), both who have one nomination to their name. Minari and The Midnight Sky are all more traditional nominees in this field, but I'm guessing one of these two keep that 1930-31 streak alive, and with Tenet falling, my money is on Chicago 7 (even though it is the lesser of the duo).
Emma
The Glorias
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
The Lowdown: Other than Ann Roth for Ma Rainey none of these nominations feel like a lock, but I feel confident that Emma and Mank get in, even if both have headaches (the former has had a weak precursor season, the latter would be a first-time nominee). Mulan has the stench of a film that flopped (even though that's not fair), but this category will predict flops if the costumes are traditional enough, and I think the movie scores somewhere (it's on the bubble in four categories), so I'm going with it here. Chicago 7 or News of the World could get a nomination due to their Best Picture status, but I'm going to assume that something bizarre happens in the fifth slot. While others are going with Jingle Jangle (which has a plethora of costumes), I think the allure of Sandy Powell & the fact that The Glorias was noticed enough to shortlist for Makeup gets it the "WTF" nomination of Monday that we all should've seen coming.
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Lowdown: If in doubt, bet on the Best Picture frontrunners, and that's what I did here. Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, and Chicago 7 are the only four films that feel in-the-running to win the top prize, so I'm going with each of them. Obviously any of the remaining five contenders could sneak in if I'm underestimating them, though only The Father has particularly noteworthy editing (that might make it rise above in this pack), and one could argue that Da 5 Bloods could get in here if the Academy felt it more than the rest of the season. However, I'm going to guess that Tenet is the fifth nominee-it has the blockbuster slot all to itself, and while the industry might be mad at it for proving the theater model was vulnerable, I am sticking to my guns on at least one category that it's going to make it (in addition to VFX).
Birds of Prey
Jingle Jangle
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Pinocchio
The Lowdown: A weird year for this category, which is always a bit weird. The shortlisted nominees had a few films that feel like total nonstarters (The Little Things, The Glorias), so I'm going with these five, though only Hillbilly Elegy and Ma Rainey I have a lot of confidence behind. Jingle Jangle and Pinocchio are both in the "Best Makeup does its own thing" field, and Birds of Prey has Suicide Squad as proof that DC can make hay in this category. As a result, I'm skipping arguably better work in Mank and Emma as even in 2020 this feels too traditional & lacking in prosthetic flare for this branch.
Emma
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
News of the World
The Lowdown: The ADG's somehow skipped both Emma and David Copperfield, which threw my predictions off. I'm keeping Emma because of the Costume likelihood (there's a lot of overlap between these two branches), but cutting Copperfield. This means I had room to include News of the World and The Midnight Sky, both of which are on-the-cusp but I'm already in pretty hard for both films. Chicago 7 isn't out-of-the-question if they're super gung ho for it, and Tenet could get a nomination (Nolan has made it here before & the design stands out in an otherwise future-free landscape), but for a category that's bizarrely lacking in frontrunners, I feel weirdly calm about these predictions.
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
Tenet
Welcome to Chechnya
The Lowdown: In a year where Virtual Effects were scarce, I'm also feeling confident here. Midnight Sky and Tenet are locks (they're the only two that might have been shortlisted in a normal year), and though atypical, Mank and Chechnya feel like classy choices that the Academy will want to embrace with such scant surroundings. The Academy could go wild here (films like Bloodshot & Love and Monsters are both action films no one has heard of, Soul would be the first Pixar film ever cited in this category), but I doubt it. As a result I'm going with Mulan, here over Birds of Prey (they've never cited a DCU film in this category before) and The One and Only Ivan (computer-animated main category, and a potential dark horse if they want to punish Mulan for "flopping"); it's a big action-adventure with showy effects in a year lacking such films. As a result, while this category will look odd in future years, it definitely won't look as odd as it might have as Mulan won't stick out at all.
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